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The violence in the eastern city of Andijon, sparked by charges of "religious extremism" against 23 businessmen, was the worst in a string of reprisals over the past year against those trying to air political and economic grievances.

Experts say Mr. Karimov's tough, secular dictatorship has jailed thousands of dissidents in recent years on such charges even as the country's 26 million people have faced economic hardships. But its authority may be starting to crack under the weight of a popular revolt in March in neighboring Kyrgyzstan as well as pro-democracy rhetoric from President Bush during a swing through the former Soviet Union last week.

"On Saturday, President Karimov admitted for the first time that there is corruption in government, and a lot of social problems," says Marina Pikulina, a Tashkent-based expert with the independent Conflict Studies Research Center. "That is a clear sign that he sees the situation as very grave."

Uzbek authorities allege that Islamic terrorists are behind a wave of bombings, riots, and spontaneous protests in the former Soviet republic. But experts say the picture is far more complex. "Popular discontent has been growing in Uzbekistan for a long time, mainly caused by unsolved deep social problems," says Viktor Korgun, a specialist with the Institute of Oriental Studies in Moscow. "The Fergana Valley is a knot of problems: it has the highest population density, severe water shortages, the highest level of unemployment, and some growth of Islamic extremism. People there feel themselves in a desperate situation."

The Andijon upheaval was triggered by the trial last week of the businessmen - the biggest employers in the impoverished city of 300,000.

On Friday morning, crowds that included armed men stormed Andijon's jail, releasing 2,000 prisoners - including the defendants.

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Sketchy reports from the town said many of the escapees subsequently holed up in a government building, while thousands of supporters gathered peacefully on the square outside. Troops poured in and, Another potential threat is the Al Qaeda-linked Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, with leaders trained in former Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, which is said to maintain strong underground cells throughout the country and whose fighters have cropped up in Chechnya and Pakistan. "If the regime crumbles, it's quite possible that Islamist elements will come to the fore in Uzbekistan," says Mr. Naumkin. "No one can imagine a liberal democracy of the Western type emerging there.Andijon is just 24 miles from the Kyrgyz town of Osh, where the revolution that overthrew President Askar Akayev began. Experts say the pro-democracy uprisings around the former Soviet Union, most recently in Kyrgyzstan, may have helped spur Andijon residents to stand up to police and troops. The Monsterjobs military blockaded Andijon for much of the weekend and few journalists were able to reach the scene. Reporters Without Borders charged that the government has jammed foreign news broadcasts. It was also impossible to access monsterjobs website.